5/28/09 California Supercell

Last night, a severe thunderstorm in central California between Porterville and Visalia (north of Bakersfield) went supercell around 8pm. I monitored the lifecycle of this incredible storm with characteristics on GRL3 such as:

57k ft tops
2.25" hail
73 dbz (br2)
60 VIL
hook echo

NWS Hanford (KHNX) and local media reports out of the area confirmed hook echo and possible funnel cloud along highway 190. Following is from NWS Hanford (truncated):
-----
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
959 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2009
... A THUNDERSTORM THAT BEGAN EAST OF PORTERVILLE BEFORE SUNSET HAS MANAGED TO STAY
TOGETHER AS IT MOVED NORTHWEST TOWARD VISALIA/HANFORD THIS EVENING. THIS THUNDERSTORM HAS PRODUCED NUMEROUS WIND DAMAGE (BLOWING DUST) AND SOME HAIL DAMAGE ALONG THIS PATH. DOPPLER RADAR PLAN AND PROFILE VIEW HAS SHOWN THIS TO BE A SUPER-CELL TYPE STORM WITH A HOOK ECHO OBSERVED BETWEEN TIPTON/LINDSAY AND PORTERVILLE. OBSERVERS (MEDIA REPORTS) REPORTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO OR FUNNEL CLOUD UNDER THE HOOK ECHO ALONG HIGHWAY 190. IN ADDITION TO THE HOOK ECHO...THIS EVENINGS STORMS HAVE PRODUCED REFLECTIVITY CORE VALUES AS HIGH AS 65-70 DBZ.......
-----

Many reports of large trees down from this storm as well.

Overall, a total of about 11 severe thunderstorm warnings were issued statewide since 1pm.

latest SPC 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook expanded general risk and "see text" to include virtually all of California for Friday 5/29, and a 5% hail outline through the center of the state. Will be monitorig possible repeat of yesterday.

Monsoon 2009 - Update #1

Yesterday, SoCal's deserts experienced classic monsoon conditions with several organized MCS-type thunderstorm complexes that raced out of western AZ near Yuma, and moved northwestward into the western Mojave Desert around Edwards AFB. The Edwards storm complex even went severe warned during the afternoon around 3pm local time.
Additional activity fired along the Sierra Nevada range as far north as Reno, as well as a few isolated cells in the southern San Joaquin Valley.

May 17, 2009 - Monsoon-type pattern arrives early in SW U.S.

For a week now, I've been watching models and satellite pics show evidence of the North American Monsoon beginning to establish itself in central Mexico. Placement of highs, lows and upper jet patterns began depositing copius amounts of subtropical moisture in the central highlands of Mexico for the past 8 days ( a generally classic pre-monsoon setup). Models suggested that a classic Four-Corners high would anchor itself, along with a weak upper level low spinning northward off the Baja coast. Mosture in west Texas would be drawn westward across NM and into AZ, and eventually, SoCal.

Well, this has come to fruition and the next several days will likely see an increase in thunderstorm action in central AZ, peaking about Wed (May 20). SoCal will be on the western fringe of this moisture shield, and SPC has already included much of California in a general thunderstorm zone for tomorrow. Now, granted these will not be of the severe variety we have been seeing in the Plains, Mid-west, and South over the past 2 months, but because of the dry surface levels and enhanced dynamics provided by the spinning low moving in off the SoCal coast, microburst conditions could occur and the areas between Casa Grande and Phoenix may experience strong "haboob" dust storms as a result. Also, the wildfire danger will be elevated as the risk of dry lightning will be present in all areas, including SoCal.

What does this mean for the rest of the season? Well, it's anyone's guess, but the CPC thinks we are in for an earlier, stronger, wetter, and longer monsoon pattern. Let's see how this all plays out :-)