Southwest Sky - Will's Weather Blog

Tsunamis and waterspouts in Southern California! Feb 27, 2010

2010-02-28T00:06:00.000-08:00

Tsunami caused by an 8.8 quake in Chile triggered a Pacific-wide tsunami threat which included California. I decided to video this historic event from the Santa Ana River inlet at the border of Huntington Beach and Newport Beach, and soon after the action settled down, a storm rolled in and generated a waterspout offshore, and a funnel cloud just above HB immediately after the watespout dissipated.

More details in the blog tomorrow. Video will be posted as well.

Amateur video of Huntington Beach tornado

2010-02-17T08:50:00.000-08:00

I was able to locate reliable authentic video footage of the January 19, 2010 Huntington Beach tornado. This video was taken from a condo balcony at an intersection about 1/4 mile south of the main damage area. I verified authenticity because I was at this intersection and made a u-turn while I was doing damage survey about 30 minutes later.

http://www.njnnetwork.com/?p=32011

Case study of the January 19, 2010 Huntington Beach, CA tornado.

2010-02-17T08:42:00.000-08:00

Meteorologist and legendary storm chaser Jon Davies did a case study of the tornado that struck Huntington Beach, CA on Jan 19, 2010. This is excellent reading:

http://davieswx.blogspot.com/2010/01/tornado-setting-in-los-angeles-area.html

El Nino Week - January 17-22, 2010

2010-01-27T07:42:00.000-08:00

Southern California and Arizona were battered with viscous El Nino driven storms that began on Sunday, January 17 and ended late on Friday, January 22. Intense rainfall, flooding, mudslides, thunderstorms, epic mountain snowfall, and tornadoes were the menu items.

On Tuesday, January 19, a waterspout that formed from a rotating supercell west of Catalina Island moved ashore as a tornado into the Sunset Beach/Huntington Harbour area of Huntington Beach, casuing EF-0 damage to businesses, boats, uprooted trees, and flipping a SUV in a shopping center parking lot along Pacific Coast Highway. The waterspout came ashore about 1pm local time. Another possible tornado caused damage a few miles farther south in Coasta Mesa, but it has not yet been officially determined to be a tornado.

Other confirmed tornadoes/funnel clouds during the week:

Monday, January 18 - Funnel cloud - Fresno
Tuesday, January 19 - Waterspout/tornado - Goleta/Santa Barbara
Thursday, January 21 - Waterspout/tornado - Santa Barbara
Thursday, January 21 - Waterspout/Tornado - Ventura

Many areas in Southern California received up to 10 inches of rainfall along the coastal and valley areas, and twice that amount along the foothills. Snow fell at record amounts averaging depths of 5-6 feet at mountain resorts with the greatest depth recorded at Mt Baldy Ski Resort of 8 feet. Snow fell as low as 2000 feet later in the week.

Arizona experienced significant flooding around the Phoenix area as several rivers overran their banks.

(more storm details coming.....)

Epic rains on the way

2010-01-16T01:45:00.001-08:00

A week filled with El Nino driven storms begins Monday in Southern California. Potential exists for significant rainfall totals of 20-30 inches along coastal mountain slopes. I will be tracking this serious situation as the potential for widespread and damaging flooding exists. I should be out streaming this event at various times during the week. Here is a wording from NWS:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
100 AM PST SAT JAN 16 2010

.HYDROLOGY...THE PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES NEAR THE COAST WITH CLOSE TO 20 INCHES ON THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES. TYPICALLY WETTER LOCATIONS ON THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES COULD RECEIVE NEAR 30 INCHES OF RAINFALL. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY ABOVE 6000 FEET...4 TO 6 FEET OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCAL LARGER AMOUNTS.
-----------

Weather roundup....

2009-12-23T02:16:00.000-08:00

> The week of December 7 thru 13 saw three systems roll through California dumping a total of just over 3 inches in that span recorded by my rain gauge here. The first system, Dec 7/8 brought significant snows (up to 4") down to sea-level in northern and central California, and dumped over 1.52" of rain here. The next two systems rolled in Dec 11 thru 14 with a total of 1.54" combined, and walloping the area with 50-70mph winds on Saturday night (Dec 13th) along with the rains. Many areas around Southern California had significantly higher rainfal amounts. There was also considerable tree and property damage around my community from the long period of 50mph winds that rake my community.

> A potent low pressure system passed through SoCal overnight Mon/Tue Dec 21/22 dropping only about .10" of rain in a several quick downpour bursts, but it was followed by periods of high winds gusting to over 70mph in some areas. As of this writing winds here are still gusting up to 30mph.

Significant weather on tap for Southern California this week.

2009-12-06T09:53:00.000-08:00

A week full of stormy weather that could potentially put a dent in the severe drought plaguing California will begin its prowess starting today. The first in a series of systems will be very cold in origin, drawing down cold air from Canada and dropping snow levels to below 2000 ft and creating fridged conditions in areas with freezing fog and black ice by Tuesday morning (Dec 8). Snow accumulations could be as deep as 3-4 feet at mountain resorts. The second storm in the series will arrive Wednesday and will be more tropical in origin, a true El Nino influenced pattern. That system will have the potential to cause widespread flooding and mudflows. More and that as we get closer to the event. The third system arrives next weekend adding additional significant rainfalls, but it is still too early to sink our teeths into yet.

Stay tuned.

Website change

2009-09-11T11:00:00.001-07:00

After some careful thought, I have decided to change the format of my website that I dedicate to stormchasing. Thus, a name change followed suit, and "Southwest Severe Weather" has now become "Southwest Sky". This allows me to focus on promoting my own weather and storm chasing work exclusively.

Soon, I will be converting the simplistic html-based design to a more progressive version based on Wordpress. It'll be a work in progress, but I am looking forward to finishing it and sharing it with everyone.

-Will

It's been awhile, I know

2009-08-07T23:17:00.000-07:00

Gosh, it's been awhile since my last post, and since then I actually have been on some fairly incredible chase trips... locally, in Arizona, and even in the high plains chasing tornadic supercells. I just simply haven't had the time to sit down and write about them the way I want to... detailed chase logs and such. With all that has been going on with my job consuming a fair amount of my life, and then trying to balance my personal time between family and my love for weather, my brain doesn't have the stamina to concentrate on writing lengthy, details stories, let alone all the distractions that break my concentration when I try.

Eventually I will write the detailed chase accounts that go with them, and have a decent photo gallery available on my website. In the meantime, if you are already a Facebook friend with me you can see the pictures there in my photo albums.

My videos can be seen here: http://www.youtube.com/swswx

5/28/09 California Supercell

2009-05-29T04:50:00.000-07:00

Last night, a severe thunderstorm in central California between Porterville and Visalia (north of Bakersfield) went supercell around 8pm. I monitored the lifecycle of this incredible storm with characteristics on GRL3 such as:

57k ft tops
2.25" hail
73 dbz (br2)
60 VIL
hook echo

NWS Hanford (KHNX) and local media reports out of the area confirmed hook echo and possible funnel cloud along highway 190. Following is from NWS Hanford (truncated):
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
959 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2009
... A THUNDERSTORM THAT BEGAN EAST OF PORTERVILLE BEFORE SUNSET HAS MANAGED TO STAY
TOGETHER AS IT MOVED NORTHWEST TOWARD VISALIA/HANFORD THIS EVENING. THIS THUNDERSTORM HAS PRODUCED NUMEROUS WIND DAMAGE (BLOWING DUST) AND SOME HAIL DAMAGE ALONG THIS PATH. DOPPLER RADAR PLAN AND PROFILE VIEW HAS SHOWN THIS TO BE A SUPER-CELL TYPE STORM WITH A HOOK ECHO OBSERVED BETWEEN TIPTON/LINDSAY AND PORTERVILLE. OBSERVERS (MEDIA REPORTS) REPORTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO OR FUNNEL CLOUD UNDER THE HOOK ECHO ALONG HIGHWAY 190. IN ADDITION TO THE HOOK ECHO...THIS EVENINGS STORMS HAVE PRODUCED REFLECTIVITY CORE VALUES AS HIGH AS 65-70 DBZ.......
-----

Many reports of large trees down from this storm as well.

Overall, a total of about 11 severe thunderstorm warnings were issued statewide since 1pm.

latest SPC 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook expanded general risk and "see text" to include virtually all of California for Friday 5/29, and a 5% hail outline through the center of the state. Will be monitorig possible repeat of yesterday.

Monsoon 2009 - Update #1

2009-05-19T10:56:00.001-07:00

Yesterday, SoCal's deserts experienced classic monsoon conditions with several organized MCS-type thunderstorm complexes that raced out of western AZ near Yuma, and moved northwestward into the western Mojave Desert around Edwards AFB. The Edwards storm complex even went severe warned during the afternoon around 3pm local time.
Additional activity fired along the Sierra Nevada range as far north as Reno, as well as a few isolated cells in the southern San Joaquin Valley.

May 17, 2009 - Monsoon-type pattern arrives early in SW U.S.

2009-05-17T10:01:00.000-07:00

For a week now, I've been watching models and satellite pics show evidence of the North American Monsoon beginning to establish itself in central Mexico. Placement of highs, lows and upper jet patterns began depositing copius amounts of subtropical moisture in the central highlands of Mexico for the past 8 days ( a generally classic pre-monsoon setup). Models suggested that a classic Four-Corners high would anchor itself, along with a weak upper level low spinning northward off the Baja coast. Mosture in west Texas would be drawn westward across NM and into AZ, and eventually, SoCal.

Well, this has come to fruition and the next several days will likely see an increase in thunderstorm action in central AZ, peaking about Wed (May 20). SoCal will be on the western fringe of this moisture shield, and SPC has already included much of California in a general thunderstorm zone for tomorrow. Now, granted these will not be of the severe variety we have been seeing in the Plains, Mid-west, and South over the past 2 months, but because of the dry surface levels and enhanced dynamics provided by the spinning low moving in off the SoCal coast, microburst conditions could occur and the areas between Casa Grande and Phoenix may experience strong "haboob" dust storms as a result. Also, the wildfire danger will be elevated as the risk of dry lightning will be present in all areas, including SoCal.

What does this mean for the rest of the season? Well, it's anyone's guess, but the CPC thinks we are in for an earlier, stronger, wetter, and longer monsoon pattern. Let's see how this all plays out :-)

2% Tornado Risk for Southern California 2/16/09

2009-02-16T00:06:00.000-08:00

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued a 2% Tornado Risk for Southern California in response the the major storm system barreling down on the area on Monday, February 16, 2009. Here are the details:

----------------------

SPC AC 160538

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2009

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN CA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD
TODAY. PLENTIFUL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT IN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM THE CNTRL CA COAST AND SRN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY SSEWD TO THE LA BASIN. LIFT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN
LA BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVES OVER SRN CA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE LA BASIN THIS AFTERNOON SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL JET. THIS ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR
ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A HAIL THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TEMPS WILL
BE A BIT WARMER. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS MOVE A 40 TO 50 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET SSEWD FROM THE CNTRL CA COAST SEWD INTO THE LA BASIN
TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS FROM THE SURROUNDING
MOUNTAIN RANGES IN THE LA BASIN WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
SUPPORTING A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WITH LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT INITIATE LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
-------------------------

-------------------------

Although I am recovering from the flu, I may venture out for a quick chase as I have a good feeling that I may see some form of funnel today. The LA Basin is a large area so this is going to be a good test for me to interpret the soundings and other factors to help put me in the right spot. Problem is, the geography of SoCal is complex and our mountains can create havoc on wind shears, but there are certain convergence zones and other types of land effects that will help me pinpoint the right place to be in. Let's see how I do.....

--------------------------

Update 6:30am 2/16/09....... SPC now issued a SLGT and 15% hail for SoCal today.... niiiice....

Tour of NWS Forecast Office in San Diego on January 2, 2009

2009-01-17T02:26:00.000-08:00

On January 2 me and several friends of mine had the opportunity to tour the National Weather Service Office in San Diego, California. It was a fantastic experience, to say the least. Our host was Miguel Miller, Forecaster and Spotter Program Manager. We were shown the various forecasting and data technology used and met several other meteorologists on staff that day. We all had so many questions and kept Miguel for nearly 3 hours, but I could have stayed there all day. ;-)

LtoR: Gerry Kerns, Miguel Miller, Steve Hilmer, Will Wilkens, Tom Harkins, and Tom Halderman.

Southern California Snow - December 17. 2009

2008-12-21T17:45:00.000-08:00

This is about the recent winter storm that blasted through Southern California on Wednesday, December 17, 2008.

What a storm it was! Record snowfall fell across all of SoCal and southern Nevada. First to mention, Las Vegas had it's heaviest snowfall since records began there in the 1930's. They had up to 9" in some areas of the valley and it was the second snowfall to occur that week. On Monday the 15th 3" of snow fell in some of the outlying suburbs. It was truly a remarkable week for Las Vegas.

Next, the Mojave Desert of SoCal was blasted with the heaviest snowfall in 24 years, and covered the greatest amount area in just as long of a time. Snow fell from an area as large as from Palmdale to Joshua Tree NP, north to Newberry Springs and northwest to Red Rock Canyon. Only a small gap from Newberry Springs to Baker was snowless and then Baker to Las Vegas was solid white. As much as 2 feet accumulated in many areas above the 3000 foot level.

On the west side of the mountains, snow levels ranged between 1000 and 1500 feet. The lowest snow levels were in the Temescal Valley area on the north side of the Santa Ana Mtns between Corona and Lake Elsinore, where snow fell down to the valley floor along I-15 between Indian Truck Trail and Lake Ave, an elevation of 1200 feet. Snow depths ranged from near 1 inch to almost 3 inches at some higher neighborhood locations. Heavy snow began falling steadily around 3pm at the 1800 foot level of Horsethief Canyon Ranch, and during the next 2 hrs the snow level lowered to the valley floor where steady snow began falling there around 5pm. By 10pm the snow had finally stopped. At my home, I received nearly an inch. Enough to make my very first snowman on my own property. Not somewhere else I had to drive to ;-)

The system responsible for this incredible event was a deep cold arctic low that had originated in Alberta, Canada. It retrograded westward and parked itself near Seattle for several days drawing in deep cold arctic air into its core. Its position just off the coast a bit enabled the cold air to mix with moist Pacific air. As the low begain migrating due south along the west coast it continued drawing in arctic air from the NE. Fully saturated with deep moisture it proceeded to unleash its energy on SoCal before ejecting into the Great Basin on Thursday.

It has been 4 days and incredibly snow is still in patches in shady areas at the 1700 foot level. The north facing slopes of the Santa Ana Mtns are still white with deep unmelted snow, and the view is as spectacular as anywhere I have seen in the Sierras and the Rockies.

I truly believe that there are a lot of incredible, yet simple things that some people don't take the time to stop and enjoy. Even if it is for a moment. Well, I am one of those that do, and this is one of those moments. ;-)

Some pictures:

-W